Americans have been speculating about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy choices – raising rates, lowering rates, buying bonds, tapering bond buying, and so on – for a long time. Sometimes, they even second-guess themselves. Paul Volcker (1979-1987) took over an economic quagmire known as The Great Inflation. When he took office, U.S. inflation was in […]

December 20, 2021 Stock and bond markets diverged. Last week, the Bank of England surprised markets with a rate hike, its first in three years, and the Bank of Mexico raised rates more than expected. Both cited persistent inflation as the reason for the increases, reported Carla Mozée of Markets Insider. In the United States,

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment showed an increase in optimism in early December – and it had nothing to do with the Michigan Wolverines winning the Big 10 Championship for the first time in 17 years. The Consumer Sentiment Index was up (+4.5 percent) month-to-month, although it remained down year-to-year (-12.8 percent).

December 13, 2021 Commentary December 13, 2021 The Markets Inflation met expectations. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) last week, it showed that inflation was at levels last seen in 1982. In November, prices were up 0.8 percent month-to-month and 6.8 percent year-to-year. “It was the blowout, superhot inflation

December 6, 2021 The Markets Investors look to the future. Last week, employment and manufacturing data confirmed that the United States economy continued to strengthen in November, but positive economic news was overshadowed by investors’ concerns about the spread of coronavirus and Federal Reserve policy. Let’s start with the economic news. More Americans were working.

The bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) was signed into law last week, and the yBuild Back Better Act (BBBA) passed the House of Representatives and moved on to the Senate. For decades economists have tried to determine how spending on infrastructure – roads, bridges, canals, railways, broadband and other projects – contributes to economic growth. There are diverse opinions

November 22, 2021 The Markets Thinking about the possibilities. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index finished last week slightly higher and has gained about 6 percent during the past 25 days; however, investors have curbed their enthusiasm. The S&P 500 hasn’t experienced a move of one percent or more in 25 trading days. That’s the longest period without

Weekly Market Commentary November 15, 2021 The Markets Economists like to joke that inflation is just right when no one notices it. Last week, investors noticed it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a measure of inflation, rose 0.9 percent in October and 6.2 percent over the last 12 months, according to the Bureau

November 8, 2021 The Markets Feeling bullish… Investor bullishness ticked higher last week on all four investor sentiment gauges tracked by Barron’s.Investor optimism may have been fanned by positive financial and economic news. For example, last week: The jobs report was better than expected. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 531,000